You Can’t Make Good Predictions Without Embracing Uncertainty — Harvard Business Review

拥抱不确定性,做出更好的决策预测 - 哈佛商业评论

Harvard Business Review has featured an article from Strategic Decisions Group CEO Carl Spetzler and Peter Hopper, who leads the firm’s Hong Kong office. Their article, “You Can’t Make Good Predictions Without Embracing Uncertainty,” discusses how too often experts labor to produce exquisitely precise and specific scenarios of how the future will unfold, shrugging off uncertainty on the grounds that the future is, ultimately, unknowable. But the uncertainty is no excuse for less rigor or clarity. A consistent, quantitative perspective on uncertainty not only builds the best foundation for making good management decisions but also provides a platform for developing a shared understanding of trade-offs, bridging disagreement and establishing accountability.

To read the full article, which includes an example of a consumer brand company rebalancing its sourcing locations, click here.

You Can’t Make Good Predictions Without Embracing Uncertainty — Harvard Business Review

 

 

 

 

 

 

哈佛商业评论刊登了一篇由Strategic Decisions Group CEO Carl Spetzler 以及香港办事处的合伙人Peter Hopper共同撰写的文章,《拥抱不确定性,做出更好的决策预测》。文章探讨了商业社会里常见的一个现象,专家们通常对于未来的发展,给出了一系列精致、明确及具体的情景规划及实施计划,却有意忽略了未来可能带来的不确定性。但是文章认为不确定性不能作为方案不够严谨及清晰的借口。采取一个统一的、量化的视角及方法去对待接受不确定性,不但能为长期做出一个良好的决策建立最佳的基础,而且还能为发展对于价值取舍的折中方案的共同理解,弥合分歧,及建立问责制度提供一个良好的平台。 想阅读全文,及对于一个消费者品牌的全球采购战略重建案例分析有兴趣的,请点击这里拥抱不确定性,做出更好的决策预测 - 哈佛商业评论