Major Oil & Gas Company Seeks Integrated Development Decision for Portfolio of Offshore Gas Fields

大型油气公司为系列海上气田探求综合发展策略

Situation Analysis:

An oil & gas company had effectively explored and developed a gas-rich offshore basin to supply large quantities of natural gas within the country where it operated. However, most of its large-scale resources were already under production, and demand was growing quickly. In the face of this increased demand and potential supply shortages, the company’s traditional approach of seeking out large prospects and converting them to high-production fields was no longer viable.

To meet future challenges, the company had to determine how to leverage its complex portfolio of medium-sized offshore assets. These ventures, however, posed a number of costly challenges. Several of the new discoveries were high in contaminants, and most of them required significant investment in order to build the processing, evacuation, and pipeline to safely and efficiently bring the gas to shore.

Discovery & Solutions:

Strategic Decision Group’s approach to maximizing this portfolio scenario was to convey the full scope of decisions that the company faced. First, the SDG team created a “decision hierarchy” to explicitly frame the strategic decisions that required immediate attention. This analysis centered on how to sequence and strategically execute future exploration projects, including the necessary development infrastructure.

With the analysis complete, SDG worked with the company’s Decision Board to devise four strategic alternatives for evaluation:

  1. Status Quo: Focus exploration on the dwindling large-scale gas deposits in the region, which could act as hubs and anchors for future drilling developments;
  2. Play It Safe: Bundle together smaller, lower-risk gas prospects and develop a separate infrastructure for each of these groups of assets;
  3. Go Big: Explore bundles of prospects with the largest potential first and develop the necessary infrastructure for each of them; and
  4. Go Big and Share Infrastructure: Explore bundles with the largest potential first, and then construct a shared pipeline infrastructure that could service all future drilling sites in the region.

To gauge the efficacy and associated risks of these four alternatives, our team performed several in-depth, probabilistic analyses and price scenarios for each option. Using this process, we concluded that the integrated approach of “bundling” the riskier, high-potential prospects with shared infrastructure would render the gas prospects more economical, and it would significantly increase the overall volume of gas produced.

Results & Impact:

The results from this clarified exploration and development approach were twofold. First, the company’s management gained clarity of action around the new, integrated approach for developing gas fields. This allowed the company to fine-tune the optimum sequence of prospects for exploration, while also providing a clear plan for how to link together successful discoveries and most efficiently bring the gas to shore. Also, for the first time, management had a consistent method for comparing alternative strategies and their risks, an efficient valuation process for its unexplored assets, and a vehicle for constructive dialogue between its various departments. Overall, the value added from the recommended project strategy proved to be significantly more that of the company’s original approach.

现况分析: 一家油气公司高效地开发并发展了一个海上富含天然气的盆地,并为其运营地所在的国家供应了大量的天然气。然而,该公司绝大部分大型资源都已被投产,而且市场需求仍在快速增长。面对增长的需求与潜在的供应短缺,该公司勘探大型潜在资源并将其转化为高产油气田的传统做法已变得不再可靠。 为了应对未来的挑战,这家公司必须决定如何有效利用其复杂的中型海上资产组合。然而,这些风险项目带来了一系列代价高昂的挑战。其中数个新发现的气田污染物含量较高,同时大部分气田需要巨大的投资用以建造处理、排放和运输管道来安全并高效地将天然气运上岸。 发现与解决方案: 为了达该公司的最优资源组合,Strategic Decisions Group采用的方法是正确传达该公司正面对的全方位策略抉择。首先,SDG团队创建了一个“决策分级制度”来明确地框架出需要及时关注的战略性决策。这项分析围绕如何对未来开发项目进行排序以及战略性地实施,同时亦关注了必要的发展基础设施。 完成了分析后,SDG与该公司决策层共同合作,设计了四种战略性评价方案:
  1. 保持现状:专注于开发本区域中正逐步衰退的大型气田,可将其作为未来开发钻井的中心及锚定点;
  2. 谨慎行事:捆绑规模较小但相对低风险的含气远景区,并为其中每个资源单独建立一套基础设施;
  3. 做大:优先开发具有最大潜能的几个含气远景区集合,并为其中每个资源单独建立基础设施;
  4. 做大并共享基础设施:优先开发具有最大潜能的含气远景区集合,然后构建一个共享的、可服务该区域内所有未来钻井地点的管道设施。
为了衡量上述四个方案的有效性与相关风险,我们团队为每一个选项都进行了多个深入的可能性分析和价格形势预测。通过利用上述过程,我们总结出:将“集束化”发展高风险高潜能的含气远景区与构建共享型基础设施相结合的综合性方案可以更经济地利用含气远景区,同时该方案可显著提高天然气总产量。 成果与影响 这个清晰化的开发及发展方案所带来的成果是双重的。首先,该公司在管理上对围绕发展气田的新综合方案获得了清晰的认识。这使该公司得以精细调节开发含气远景区的最优顺序,同时还为如何将勘探成果联接起来以及如何最高效地将天然气运输上岸提供了清晰的计划。此外,管理层首次拥有了一个用于比较不同战略及其风险的一致性的方法、一个同样适用于尚未开发的资产的高效评价程序,与一个促进不同部门之间的建设性对话的工具。总的来说,事实证明我们推荐的项目计划比该公司原定的方案明显带来了更大的价值。